Yes You Can, Mr. President

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Israel Policy Forum Announces its Next Chapter with Middle East Progress

Dear Friends and Supporters of Israel Policy Forum:

On behalf of Israel Policy Forum (IPF), including our President Peter Joseph and Chair Larry Zicklin, I am pleased to inform you that IPF is embarking on its next chapter. 

2010 Must Be Showtime for Mideast Peace

Assistant Director, IPF - NY

As 2009 draws to a close, we are bombarded by the annual litany of commentary features recapping the year in Hollywood movies to the year in international conflict, and everything in between.

When it comes to the Middle East peace process, current conventional wisdom suggests the 2009 recap might go something like this: 

US-Iran Negotiations: Simulation Exercise at INSS

Ephraim Asculai, Emily B. Landau, and Tamar Malz-Ginzburg

INSS Insight No. 154, December 29, 2009

Despite the tendency to denote any simulation exercise on security issues a "war game," the recent simulation designed and held at INSS did not focus on the option of a military attack. Rather, it developed the scenario of a bilateral US-Iranian negotiation over Iran's nuclear program.

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Israeli Officials Say US is Losing Patience

Vice President Biden's recent comments reaffirmed Israel's sovereignty in assessing national security threats as well as reflected the dwindling patience of the US in engaging Iran in dialogue.

Boaz Bismuth and Matti Tuchfeld in Israel Hayom:

Has US Vice President Joe Biden given Israel a green light to attack Iran?  In an unusual statement, the US vice president said yesterday in an interview to ABC with respect to an Israeli strike against Iran that the US could not dictate to a sovereign nation what it could or could not do.

Officials in Jerusalem were not surprised by Biden's statements.

"There are secret understandings between Israel and the Obama administration as to the options that Israel has regarding Iran," said a political source in Jerusalem to Israel Hayom.

Sources in the Prime Minister's Bureau said yesterday that "the fact that Biden is talking about Israel's right to attack Iran, and at the same time fewer statements are being made on settlements, shows that Netanyahu is succeeding, slowly and determinedly, in persuading the Americans of the justice of his government's policy."

The administration in Washington may not have given its blessing to an Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear sites, but it is also not withholding it.  The US vice president said: Israel is a sovereign country that can decide what is right for its interests, concerning Iran and all the rest.  Biden was asked the same question three times and gave the same answer over and over.

The political source in Jerusalem said, "Biden said this because the administration is starting to lose its patience in light of Iran's evasion of a dialogue and its continued missile tests."

The Israeli source, who maintains continuous contact with senior officials in the Obama administration, said further that "the Iranians have been avoiding a dialogue with the Americans for the past six months, and have been vigorously continuing the tests.  Biden's statement at this time is meant to signal to the Iranians that the administration is fed up with this story, and that they don't intend to wait for them indefinitely."

Both President Obama and Vice President Biden asserted that the current repression in Iran would not undermine US efforts to engage the country in dialogue.  However, Biden also used this opportunity to express his view on Israel's sovereignty and right to assess what constitutes an existential threat.  David E. Sanger in The New York Times:

President Obama and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., in separate interviews this weekend, said that the accelerating crackdown on opposition leaders in Iran in recent days would not deter them from seeking to engage the country's top leadership in direct negotiations.

In an interview with The New York Times, a day before his scheduled departure for Moscow on Sunday, Mr. Obama said he had "grave concern" about the arrests and intimidation of Iran's opposition leaders, but insisted, as he has throughout the Iranian crisis, that the repression would not close the door on negotiations with the Iranian government.

"We've got some fixed national security interests in Iran not developing nuclear weapons, in not exporting terrorism, and we have offered a pathway for Iran to rejoining the international community," Mr. Obama said.

Mr. Biden echoed the same themes in an interview conducted in Iraq and broadcast Sunday on the ABC News program "This Week." But in a rare foray into one of the most sensitive issues in the Middle East, the vice president argued that the United States "cannot dictate" Israel's decisions about whether to strike the plants at the heart of Iran's nuclear program. He said only Israelis could determine "that they're existentially threatened" by the prospect that Iran would gain nuclear weapons capability.

In his interview, Mr. Biden ventured into what is usually forbidden territory by discussing the possibility that Israel may decide it cannot wait to see if Mr. Obama's diplomatic overtures work.

"Israel can determine for itself - it's a sovereign nation - what's in their interest and what they decide to do relative to Iran and anyone else," he said. But he added that the United States would not let any other nation determine its approach to national security, including the wisdom of engagement. "If the Iranians respond to the offer of engagement, we will engage," he said.

Israeli officials have been deeply uncomfortable with Mr. Obama's engagement offer, arguing that Iran is still adding centrifuges to its plant at Natanz, where it can enrich uranium. The last report of the International Atomic Energy Agency indicated roughly 7,000 centrifuges are now enriching uranium into fuel, but without further enrichment it is suitable only for nuclear power.

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