Netanyahu's Catch-22

Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu may be discovering the meaning of "Catch-22."

Here it is. He cannot last as prime minister if he begins his tenure battling President Obama over negotiations with the Palestinians and settlement expansion. But, at least one of the parties he needs in his coalition to form a government opposes negotiations, favors settlement expansion, and will walk out of any government that plays ball with Obama.

To form a government, Netanyahu has to convince at least 61 of the 120 Knesset members to join his coalition. But, abandoned by the mainstream parties-Kadima and Labor-Netanyahu is left with five peripheral groups that together offer a meager 38 seats. Netanyahu's choice is between a government of 65 that includes the National Union Party (4 seats), which rejects past Israeli-Palestinian agreements and calls for a "decisive military victory" over Arabs, or one with the minimum of 61 seats, which excludes the National Union. This is a miserable choice because either government would be at constant risk of falling, unstable any way you slice it.

The Shas/Yisrael Beiteinu Shuffle

The parties Netanyahu must deal with are playing an Israeli version of Let's Make a Deal. Netanyahu courts party leaders by offering appointments and promising to promote their policies.

Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu Party (15 seats) is the most powerful of the Likud's potential partners (it will have the most seats in the government after the Likud). Lieberman is slated to become Israel's foreign minister and to handpick its justice minister, a position with major influence over Israel's Supreme Court.

Yisrael Beitenu is also Netanyahu's greatest threat. It could alienate world governments by pushing its "no loyalty, no citizenship" plan for withholding Arab-Israeli rights. It could try to topple the government by leaving the coalition. Or it could provoke its foe, the Shas Party (11 seats), to walk out.

Shas leader Ovadia Yosef has called Avigdor Lieberman "Satan," but he might also see him as Lenin. That is because along with its "Israel for the Jews" policy, Yisrael Beitenu is adamantly secularist. It opposes clerical authority over Israeli lives-precisely the authority that Shas is trying to protect.

Shas may be willing to compromise somewhat to be in the government; for example, it proposed an easing of Israel's marriage law to allow non-Jews to marry in civil ceremonies (although not Jews!). But it will risk bringing down a government over what it views as core principles. It torpedoed Tzipi Livni's attempt to form a government coalition last year after she refused to increase welfare benefits for large families.

Netanyahu is believed to have already made a backroom deal with Shas. But its asking price includes leadership of the interior ministry (which controls religious authority in Israel), and the housing ministry (which decides on settlement construction), as well as increased funding for child allowances and religious schools.

This puts Netanyahu on a tightrope between Yisrael Beitenu and Shas. He needs them both, but is at risk of losing them if he appears to favor one over the other. But even that, to turn the Passover song on its head, will not be enough. Added to his party's 27 seats, both Yisrael Beitenu and Shas together bring his total to only 53 seats. For 61, Netanyahu needs the religious United Torah Judaism Party (5 seats) and either the Jewish Home Party (3 seats) or the National Union Party (4 seats).

The Day After

With only a few seats to bargain with, these parties do not have the power to demand major government positions like Yisrael Beitenu and Shas can. But they can work to block any diplomatic initiative that Netanyahu takes.

Joining a small government will give them a loud voice and the power to at least threaten to walk. They already have the ideology.

The Jewish Home and the National Union, in particular, promise to uphold their beliefs and reject Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian land or any freeze on settlement construction. The Jewish Home's platform promises that, "only the State of Israel will be established between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. A Palestinian state will not be established there . . . any political agreement must guarantee to not uproot a single Jewish settlement."

The National Union took a step further by hinging its government membership on a demand for increased settlement expansion. If a compromise is not found, they may be out of a government coalition. Additionally, Netanyahu could still face detractors from within the Likud. His own party members might revolt against him if they feel that he handed out all the favors and left none for them. (Some of his deputies' ideologies are not so different from the other right-wing parties. They could combine their efforts to stop peace initiatives.)

But those worries will be there the day after a coalition is formed. On that day, the United States will have to begin examining whether Netanyahu is able to make good on his promise to be a partner for peace.

But first, Netanyahu has to form his government. Then it's Obama's turn.